The Baglihar Dam, located on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ramban district, remains shut for the second consecutive day, following its temporary opening due to heavy rainfall on May 8. Initially opened to prevent potential flooding, the closure now aligns with a broader geopolitical context—ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan over the suspended Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The decision to close the dam gates underscores how regional weather dynamics and international diplomacy are intersecting at a critical juncture. Though weather was the initial catalyst, political undertones have overtaken the narrative, especially after the recent Pahalgam terror attack that prompted India to put the treaty in abeyance.

Indus Waters Treaty: A Fragile Framework Under Strain

Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty was a landmark agreement mediated by the World Bank, allocating the Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) largely to Pakistan. While India retained non-consumptive and limited agricultural rights over the Western rivers, the treaty allowed for run-of-the-river (RoR) hydroelectric projects like Baglihar. However, the treaty’s strength has always depended on political goodwill, which has deteriorated following repeated terror attacks allegedly linked to Pakistan. The suspension of the treaty marks a major shift in India’s diplomatic strategy, signaling a harder stance on cross-border hostilities.

Strategic Water Management: India’s Infrastructure and Legal Leverage

Over the years, India has invested in major infrastructure to utilize the waters of its allocated rivers. Projects like Bhakra, Pong, Pandoh, and Ranjitsagar Dams on the Eastern rivers, along with massive canal systems like the Indira Gandhi Nahar, have ensured near-total utilization of the Eastern waters. Meanwhile, India’s legal right to construct RoR projects on the Western rivers, within treaty norms, has allowed strategic assets like the Baglihar Dam. These infrastructural tools now serve as leverage points amid strained India-Pakistan ties. The controlled closure of Baglihar is not just a flood-control measure—it’s a clear diplomatic signal of India asserting control over its water resources in response to terrorism.

Operation Sindoor and the Shift in India’s Policy on Pakistan

In his national address on May 12, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invoked “Operation Sindoor” as a turning point in India’s counter-terrorism doctrine. Citing surgical strikes in 2016, the Balakot air strike in 2019, and now the water-centric response to the Pahalgam attack, Modi emphasized that “water and blood cannot flow together.” This marks a decisive policy pivot where India is now willing to use previously neutral diplomatic instruments—like the Indus Waters Treaty—as strategic tools of pressure. His statement that talks with Pakistan will only revolve around terrorism and the illegal occupation of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir sets a new diplomatic baseline. The message is clear: India is reshaping its playbook to be more assertive in the face of provocation.

The Road Ahead: Water as a Weapon or a Catalyst for Peace?

With the Indus Waters Treaty now officially in suspension and critical infrastructure like Baglihar Dam becoming focal points of both policy and politics, the region faces a volatile mix of environmental and geopolitical challenges. The closure of dam gates amid diplomatic deadlock raises questions about future water-sharing dynamics, ecological impacts, and the role of international mediation. While India reinforces its stance, Pakistan is expected to seek global support to restore treaty provisions. However, unless cross-border terrorism is meaningfully addressed, the chances of treaty restoration appear slim. In this new era, water—once a symbol of cooperation—now risks becoming a tool of conflict unless dialogue, accountability, and diplomacy are meaningfully revived.

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Source : english.punjabkesari.com